Teil 10 Technische Analyse – Formationen von Candles

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Technische Analyse

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In dieser Lektion lernen Sie:

Was hinter dem Konzept der technischen Analyse steht

Wie man den Markt mit Schwerpunkt hauptsächlich auf den Charts analysiert

Weshalb die Geschichte dazu neigt, sich auf den Finanzmärkten zu wiederholen

Im Großen und Ganzen gibt es zwei Ansätze, die Händler nutzen, um festzulegen, welcher Markt nach oben oder nach unten geht. Diese werden als Fundamentalanalyse und technische Analyse bezeichnet. Es ist ein ähnlicher Ansatz, wie wenn Sie ein Auto kaufen. Sie können dessen Preis analysieren, andererseits können Sie sich den Motor, das Fahrwerk und vieles mehr ansehen.

Während sich die Fundamentalanalyse auf die Wirtschaftsinformationen eines Unternehmens, eines Rohstoffs oder einer Währung konzentriert, konzentriert sich die technische Analyse auf den Chart, um die zukünftigen Preisbewegungen vorherzusagen.

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Als eine der beliebtesten Methoden, die heute von Händlern genutzt werden um Trading-Chancen zu erkennen, gibt es drei Prinzipien der technischen Analyse:

Das Marktgeschehen bildet alles ab

Preise bewegen sich in Trends

Muster wiederholen sich ständig

Das Marktgeschehen bildet alles ab

Die technische Analyse berücksichtigt nur Kursbewegungen, fundamentale Faktoren werden ignoriert, da von all‘ diesen Faktoren, die den Marktpreis beeinflussen, angenommen wird, dass sie in den Bewegungen enthalten sind. Daher muss nur der Preis selbst begutachtet werden.

Natürlich kann sich ein unerwartetes Ereignis, beispielsweise eine Naturkatastrophe oder geopolitische Spannungen, auf einen bestimmten Markt auswirken, aber ein technischer Analyst ist nicht an dessen Grund interessiert. Ein technischer Analyst konzentriert sich auf den Chart selbst und die Formen, Muster und Formationen, die im Chart auftreten.

Preise bewegen sich in Trends

In der technischen Analyse geht man davon aus, dass die Preisbewegungen Trends folgen. Das bedeutet, dass es nach der Etablierung eines Trends wahrscheinlicher ist, dass die zukünftige Kursentwicklung in die gleiche Richtung wie der Trend geht und nicht gegenläufig ist. Die meisten technischen Trading-Strategien basieren auf diesem Konzept.

Die Geschichte wiederholt sich ständig

Der Grundstein der technischen Analyse ist die Überzeugung, dass die Geschichte dazu neigt, sich zu wiederholen. Stieg beispielsweise der EURUSD vor den FED-Treffen, kauft ein Händler das Paar vor der nächsten Zinsentscheidung in den USA. Daher nutzen technische Analysten historische Kursdaten, um vorherzusagen, in welche Richtung die Kurse sich als nächstes bewegen werden. Hier kommen die Ebenen Support (Unterstützung) und Resistance (Widerstand) ins Spiel.

Charts neigen dazu, Formen zu bilden, die bereits früher aufgetreten sind, und die Analyse der vergangenen Muster hilft den technischen Analysten, künftige Marktbewegungen vorherzusagen. Dieses Prinzip konzentriert sich auf die Meinung der technischen Analysten, dass Handel stark mit Wahrscheinlichkeit verbunden ist und dass die Analyse der vergangenen Formen dem Analysten vor dem Eröffnen eines Trades einen Vorteil bietet. Diese Formen werden als Kursmuster bezeichnet.

Vorhersagen für die Zukunft

Die technische Analyse ist die Praxis, zukünftige Preisbewegungen basierend auf der Bewertung der letzten Kursbewegungen vorherzusagen. Technische Analysten glauben, dass der DE30, wenn er vor Kurzem gestiegen ist, auch in der Zukunft weiter steigen könnte, da er sich in einem Aufwärtstrend befindet. Es gibt viele verschiedene Techniken, um Trends zu erkennen, aber wie bei der Wettervorhersage decken die Ergebnisse der technischen Analyse nicht alle Eventualitäten ab. Die technische Analyse kann Anlegern jedoch dabei helfen, die wahrscheinliche Preisentwicklung im Laufe der Zeit vorherzusehen.

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Using Bullish Candlestick Patterns To Buy Stocks

Candlestick charts are a type of financial chart for tracking the movement of securities. They have their origins in the centuries-old Japanese rice trade and have made their way into modern day price charting.   Some investors find them more visually appealing than the standard bar charts and the price actions easier to interpret.

Candlesticks are so named because the rectangular shape and lines on either end resemble a candle with wicks. Each candlestick usually represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock. Over time, the candlesticks group into recognizable patterns that investors can use to make buying and selling decisions.

Key Takeaways

  • Candlestick charts are useful for technical day traders to identify patterns and make trading decisions.
  • Bullish candlesticks indicate entry points for long trades, and can help predict when a downtrend is about to turn around to the upside.
  • Here, we go over several examples of bullish candlestick patterns to look out for.

How to Read a Single Candlestick

Each candlestick represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock through four pieces of information: the opening price, the closing price, the high price, and the low price. The color of the central rectangle (called the real body) tells investors whether the opening price or the closing price was higher. A black or filled candlestick means the closing price for the period was less than the opening price; hence, it is bearish and indicates selling pressure.   Meanwhile, a white or hollow candlestick means that the closing price was greater than the opening price. This is bullish and shows buying pressure. The lines at both ends of a candlestick are called shadows, and they show the entire range of price action for the day, from low to high. The upper shadow shows the stock’s highest price for the day, and the lower shadow shows the lowest price for the day.

Bullish Candlestick Patterns

Over time, groups of daily candlesticks fall into recognizable patterns with descriptive names like three white soldiers, dark cloud cover, hammer, morning star, and abandoned baby, to name just a few.   Patterns form over a period of one to four weeks and are a source of valuable insight into a stock’s future price action. Before we delve into individual bullish candlestick patterns, note the following two principles:

  1. Bullish reversal patterns should form within a downtrend. Otherwise, it’s not a bullish pattern, but a continuation pattern.
  2. Most bullish reversal patterns require bullish confirmation. In other words, they must be followed by an upside price move which can come as a long hollow candlestick or a gap up and be accompanied by high trading volume. This confirmation should be observed within three days of the pattern.

The bullish reversal patterns can further be confirmed through other means of traditional technical analysis—like trend lines, momentum, oscillators, or volume indicators—to reaffirm buying pressure. There are a great many candlestick patterns that indicate an opportunity to buy. We will focus on five bullish candlestick patterns that give the strongest reversal signal.

1. The Hammer or the Inverted Hammer

The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which signals that a stock is nearing bottom in a downtrend. The body of the candle is short with a longer lower shadow which is a sign of sellers driving prices lower during the trading session, only to be followed by strong buying pressure to end the session on a higher close. Before we jump in on the bullish reversal action, however, we must confirm the upward trend by watching it closely for the next few days. The reversal must also be validated through the rise in the trading volume.

The Inverted Hammer also forms in a downtrend and represents a likely trend reversal or support. It’s identical to the Hammer except for the longer upper shadow, which indicates buying pressure after the opening price, followed by considerable selling pressure, which however wasn’t enough to bring the price down below its opening value. Again, bullish confirmation is required, and it can come in the form of a long hollow candlestick or a gap up, accompanied by a heavy trading volume.

2. The Bullish Engulfing

The Bullish Engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern. The second candle completely ‘engulfs’ the real body of the first one, without regard to the length of the tail shadows. The Bullish Engulfing pattern appears in a downtrend and is a combination of one dark candle followed by a larger hollow candle. On the second day of the pattern, price opens lower than the previous low, yet buying pressure pushes the price up to a higher level than the previous high, culminating in an obvious win for the buyers. It is advisable to enter a long position when the price moves higher than the high of the second engulfing candle—in other words when the downtrend reversal is confirmed.

3. The Piercing Line

Similar to the engulfing pattern, the Piercing Line is a two-candle bullish reversal pattern, also occurring in downtrends. The first long black candle is followed by a white candle that opens lower than the previous close. Soon thereafter, the buying pressure pushes the price up halfway or more (preferably two-thirds of the way) into the real body of the black candle.

4. The Morning Star

As the name indicates, the Morning Star is a sign of hope and a new beginning in a gloomy downtrend. The pattern consists of three candles: one short-bodied candle (called a doji or a spinning top) between a preceding long black candle and a succeeding long white one. The color of the real body of the short candle can be either white or black, and there is no overlap between its body and that of the black candle before. It shows that the selling pressure that was there the day before is now subsiding. The third white candle overlaps with the body of the black candle and shows a renewed buyer pressure and a start of a bullish reversal, especially if confirmed by the higher volume.

5. The Three White Soldiers

This pattern is usually observed after a period of downtrend or in price consolidation. It consists of three long white candles that close progressively higher on each subsequent trading day. Each candle opens higher than the previous open and closes near the high of the day, showing a steady advance of buying pressure. Investors should exercise caution when white candles appear to be too long as that may attract short sellers and push the price of the stock further down.

Putting it All Together

The chart below for Enbridge, Inc. (ENB) shows three of the bullish reversal patterns discussed above: the Inverted Hammer, the Piercing Line, and the Hammer.

The chart for Pacific DataVision, Inc. (PDVW) shows the Three White Soldiers pattern. Note how the reversal in downtrend is confirmed by the sharp increase in the trading volume.

The Bottom Line

Investors should use candlestick charts like any other technical analysis tool (i.e., to study the psychology of market participants in the context of stock trading). They provide an extra layer of analysis on top of the fundamental analysis that forms the basis for trading decisions.

We looked at five of the more popular candlestick chart patterns that signal buying opportunities. They can help identify a change in trader sentiment where buyer pressure overcomes seller pressure. Such a downtrend reversal can be accompanied by a potential for long gains. That said, the patterns themselves do not guarantee that the trend will reverse. Investors should always confirm reversal by the subsequent price action before initiating a trade.

While there are some ways to predict markets, technical analysis is not always a perfect indication of performance. Either way, to invest you’ll need a broker account. You can check out Investopedia’s list of the best online stock brokers to get an idea of the top choices in the industry.

Teil 10: Technische Analyse – Formationen von Candles

Candlesticks are an efficient way to view an asset’s price chart. Candlesticks quickly show which way the price moved during a specific time period using colors, as well as how far the price moved during that period.

Candlesticks are popular because of their visual appeal, compared to bar or line charts.
Each „candle“ represents a certain amount of time, which is selected in the trading platform or in the chart settings.

The Candle Code indicator is used to assign a numerical value to each candle based on Five candlestick characteristics, including Body Color, Body Size, Upper Shadow, Lower Shadow, and Gap.

Positive candle code values represent Bullish candles while Negative candle code values represent Bearish candles.
The more positive the code, the more Bullish the Candle. The more Negative the code, the more Bearish the candle.

Each of the five candle characteristics can be weighted according to the user’s preferences.
A Higher Weight will make that characteristic have a greater influence on the codes value.
A Weight of zero will cause that characteristic to have no influence on the code.

Candlestick charts are a popular chart choice among traders, because of the wide-range of trading information that they represent. Candlestick charts are also easy to read and interpret.

Candlestick charts consist of a Body (fat part of Candle) and Tails or Wicks (thin lines above or below the Body).
Each candlestick includes an Open, High, Low and Close price for the Time Frame.

Candlestick Charts are read and interpreted as follows (view a full-size chart example here) :

Open – The open is the first price traded during the candlestick, and is indicated by either the top or bottom of the body. In the example chart, the upward candlesticks are colored green, and the downward candlesticks are colored red. The color is based on whether the price is above (green) or below (red) the open price during the time frame of the candlestick.

High – The high is the highest price traded during the candlestick, and is indicated by the top of the tail that occurs above the body (called the upper tail). If the open was the highest price during the time frame then there will be no upper tail.

Low – The low is the lowest price traded during the candlestick, and is indicated by the bottom of the tail that occurs below the body (called the lower tail).

If the open was the lowest price during the time frame, then there will be no lower tail

Close – The close is the last price traded during the candlestick, and is indicated by either the top or bottom of the body. In the example chart, the upward candlesticks are colored green, and the downward candlesticks are colored red. The color is based on whether the closing price (or last price, if the candlestick is not completed) is above or below the open price.

While a candle is forming (not yet completed), the candle will constantly change as the price moves. The open stays the same, but until the candle completes, the high, low and close could all change. The color may also change while a candlestick is forming. It may go from green to red, for example, if the price is above the open price, but then drops below it. When the time frame for the candle ends, the last price is the closing price, and then the candle can no longer change. A new bar forms to show how the price moves over the next time segment.

Direction – The direction the price moved during the time frame of the candle is indicated by the color of the candlestick. If the candlestick is green, then the price closed above where it opened.

If the candlestick is Red, the price closed below where it opened. These represent upward and downward movements, respectively. Green and Red are common Candlestick colors, but the Colors can be altered to suit a Trader’s visual preference. Other common colors are White or Blue for upward movement, and Black for downward movement.

Range – The price difference between the upper and lower tails show the range the price moved during the time frame of the candlestick. The range is calculated by subtracting the high from the low (Range = High – Low). Wide-ranging bars indicate a lot of volatility, while candlesticks with a small range indicate complacency and a lack of volatility.

Learning how to read Candlesticks (or another chart type) is one of the Very First steps in learning how to Day trade. Once comfortable with reading a chart, then move on to studying other aspects of technical analysis and developing a Trading Strategy.

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